Questions I’d Like To Ask The Presidential Candidates #1

1. Is Taiwan Worth Going To War Over?

In July/August of 2007 I attended The Stanford Summit, a technology conference presented by an organization called  Always On.

On Wednesday afternoon August 1 John McCain held a “Fireside Chat”.

Senator John McCain appeared before thousands of live attendees and webcast viewers Wednesday afternoon at the Stanford Summit. The would-be president laid down a number of promises he would act on immediately if elected. "Specifically on inaugural day, I would say we're going to close Guantanamo and move those prisoners to Ft. Leavenworth. I would say that we are never going to torture another person in American custody, and I would say we're going to be serious about climate change."

McCain also explained what it's like to fight in a failing war (Vietnam), and how Iraq is different.  "What the Democrats have lost sight of is that presidents don't lose wars, and political parties don't lose wars; nations lose wars," he said.  "I was in the military the last time we lost a war [...] we had huge problems. The military today is overstretched. It's incredible what we're asking of young people, but I'll tell you, it's a lot better than a defeated military." He accepted Interviewer Peter Robinson's characterization as the only candidate with a hunger for victory in Iraq.

Click here to watch McCain's stump speech, the entire interview (with the live, unfiltered chat that was projected on the big screen at the event), and the lively Q&A session that followed.

 

One of the question asked of Sen. McCain (minute 55 of the video) was “Senator, can you conceive of going to war with China over Taiwan?” Sen. McCain explained that he could not conceive of war between the United States and China under any circumstances due to the economic and social damage that China’s invasion would cause.

A follow up question asked a little later (minute 65:22 of the video) was asked by a Chinese man. He wanted to know (based upon his opinion that in the case of a Taiwanese declaration of independence the Chinese people would demand that the Chinese government take military action) how Sen. McCain would prevent Taiwan from declaring independence. Sen. McCain’s answer showed a frightening lack of understanding of the situation in The Taiwan Strait and of contemporary Chinese attitudes when he stated “when I speak to the leaders of China I find their attitude toward Taiwan “irrational”. As the questioner pressed his point Sen. McCain’s famous temper showed up and a rather animated exchange followed. Clearly Sen. McCain did not understand the strong nationalistic attitudes prevalent in China today.

“It doesn't matter if a cat is black or white, so long as it catches mice.” --- Deng Xiao Ping

While nationalism has long been deeply rooted in Chinese society it has never been stronger than it is today and nationalism has, to a great degree, replaced communism as a grand organizing philosophy as the acceptance of private ownership has replaced the concept of complete collective ownership in China’s modern “socialist market economy”.

With "To Get Rich Is Glorious" Deng Xiao Ping  unleashed a wave of entrepreneurship and private enterprise that continues to drive China's economy today. With it the basic organizing philosophy that animates the Chinese people has changed to the quest for private ownership of homes, cars, consumer goods and all the rest of it.

Changes in China have not only been dramatic, they have been rapid. Imagine living in a society that has gone from the horrors of The Cultural Revolution to a rapidly emerging economy that just hosted an Olympics Games costing a reported $80 billion and registered 5 million new cars just last year, all in just some 50 years.

The Taiwan Strait, lying between mainland China and Taiwan is a mere 112 miles wide and is one of the most strategically important places on the planet. Most of Japan’s (one of China’s most bitter enemies) oil must pass through the strait and keeping the strait open and passage through it unfettered is of major strategic importance to Japan and to the United States; the US has pledged to defend not only Taiwan but Japan as well.

Obviously much has changed in a little over one year since McCain responded to those questions. Our military is bogged down in Iraq. Nearly 8 years of tragic and ruinous foreign policy America’s has left our ability to act strategically has greatly diminished.

So I would ask the question again: “Senator McCain, can you conceive of going to war with China over Taiwan?” I would also ask both candidates “Senators, if you were the leader of China wouldn’t you be thinking that this would be a very good time to just go and take Taiwan?”

More Reading:
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Deng's Legacy
Waving Goodbye To Hegemony